Many people often embrace the New Year as a fresh start, a time for hope, and an opportunity for new beginnings. However, as we begin 2023, this is certainly not the case for a predicted 339 million people globally. It is estimated that 1 in every 23 people will be in need of humanitarian aid, and 51.5 billion dollars will be needed to cater to these people. These figures should evoke alarm bells, as they highlight the steep trajectory of global human suffering. Crises today, such as global starvation, climate change, war and conflict, gender inequality, and diseases, are overlapping and consuming humanity, and against the backdrop of this is system-wide economic degradation, rising inflation, and a widening funding gap. Because of the gravity of the situation, Martin Griffith, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, has emphasised the dire need for transformational humanitarian action in 2023. That said, let’s look at the humanitarian trends we can expect this year.
Global Starvation
For most people in the world, the thought of not knowing where your next meal will come from, or if there will even be one, is quite unimaginable, yet this is a reality for many. According to the United Nations Global Humanitarian Overview, 45 million people in 37 countries will be on the brink of starvation this year, while 222 million will face acute food insecurity. In light of this, we can now predict, with a high level of certainty, that the UN’s plan to eradicate global hunger by 2030 will unlikely come to fruition. Hunger levels have grown yearly for the last four years, with 2023 expected to be the worst year yet. Countries such as Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan are experiencing famine-like conditions. As needs increase, so do operational costs to help people in need. Scaled-up funding for cash, food and livelihood assistance remains an urgent priority, especially as the global food crisis has not yet reached its peak.
Conflict
The most considerable upheaval of 2022 was, without a doubt, the war in Ukraine, and the effects of the conflict have been felt by people worldwide. Soaring food and energy prices because of the war have made it very difficult for agencies like the World Food Programme to effectively carry out their operations in many of the least developed countries. Somalia, a country wrestling with famine, relies on Ukraine for 90% of its wheat, yet the conflict has hindered this crucial food supply. In saying that, the war in Ukraine highlights how the effects of conflict are not localized but globalized and how we, as such, need global solutions. We can also further anticipate seeing conflict in Somalia, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Afghanistan, Syria, and Haiti, countries already grappling with climate disasters, economic collapse, and food scarcity. Sadly, women, children, and the elderly bear the brunt of the hardship in these environments, and conflict will massively constrain their access to crucial aid. Humanitarian operations are severely impacted by conflict, insecurity, attacks on infrastructure and humanitarian assets, and violence against humanitarian workers. Humanitarian access constraints continue, in addition to bureaucratic impediments and counter-terrorism and sanctions measures.
Displaced Persons
A further trend that is showing no signs of abating is forced displacement. Since 2012, we have seen a steep incline in the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, and asylum seekers. Much of the increase in numbers this year can be attributed to the war in Ukraine, and according to Martin Griffith, it is notably the worst forced displacement crisis since the Second World War. As of mid-2022, the number of people displaced had reached a staggering 103 million, with 7.4 million of these being Ukrainian refugees. Statistics further highlight the vulnerability of children, as it is estimated that they account for 41% of those forcibly displaced globally. To add fuel to the fire, rising inflation is creating a situation where the cost of humanitarian assistance is higher than ever, and, as such, countries are becoming less willing to play host.
Climate Change
Climate crisis is also a humanitarian crisis. Climate-induced disasters are making it increasingly difficult for people to lead everyday life, and a sad reality is that those who contribute least to climate change are most affected by it. Severe drought and failed rains in the Horn of Africa, cyclones in Madagascar and Mozambique, and flooding in Nigeria, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are prime examples of this. Climate shocks are decimating people’s livelihoods and food supplies, deepening inequalities, fostering human rights abuses, enabling the spread of diseases, and forcing people to leave the only home they’ve ever known in search of stability. If the international community does not come together to combat climate change, we can expect to see 1.5 large-scale disasters per day, which will again exacerbate all humanitarian issues.
Gender Inequality
Although gender equality is fundamental to addressing humanitarian issues and achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs), it is often overlooked and underfunded. Conflict, poverty, and climate change disproportionately affect women and children. António Guterres, the UN’s Secretary General, says, “in every crisis, women and girls are the last to eat and the first to suffer hunger and poverty.” As well as this, sexual and reproductive rights services are failing women worldwide, the current economic downturn is worsening the protection of women and children, and funding is flatlining for those most exposed to gender-based violence. Global leaders and experts now estimate that it will take four generations, or 132 years, to achieve global gender parity. As such, greater importance must be given to women’s voices in leadership and decision-making this year if we are ever to close the gender gap. The emergency response must prioritize gender considerations for the humanitarian system to address gender-based violence and support women and girls meaningful participation and leadership in emergencies.
The importance of localization
Engaging local and national actors (L/NAs) is critical to the success of humanitarian action, as they are often the first responders and at the heart of the humanitarian response. They provide an invaluable understanding of local challenges and potential solutions, and they can mobilise local networks and offer greater access to affected populations. Hence they contribute to a more effective, efficient and sustainable humanitarian response. For this reason, it is paramount that a good amount of donor funding goes to local or national actors as directly as possible. OCHA’s Country-Based Pooled Funds (CBPFs) are positioned to contribute to achieving this target due to their highly localised decision-making structures and elaborate in-country networks – in 2022 local actors directly received 27 per cent of overall CBPF funding, a total 0f 201 dollars.
Final Thoughts
This year will undoubtedly be an uphill battle as the humanitarian community scrambles for finances to help those most vulnerable; however, there is hope. We must continue emphasising the importance of anticipatory and early action, resilience measures, solidarity, and accountability. Global and national actors must listen to the needs of local communities and people directly affected by these issues, as they can play a crucial role in delivering solutions. Despite the widening funding gap, we must also advocate for new funding mechanisms and improve existing ones, as finances and investments are fundamental in combating humanitarian issues. Lastly, although it may seem that we are fighting a losing battle, we must collectively demonstrate resilience in the face of adversity; as Martin Griffith says, “resilience has got to be the pitch that we make.”
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