The persistence of the conflict in Ukraine and the earthquake that shook Turkey and Syria have seriously strained our world since the beginning of 2023. It is estimated that worldwide 339 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. But for some countries – like Somalia and Yemen – such events struck it even harder, causing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Impacts and Consequences of the Ukrainian Conflict
The war in Ukraine has been going on for over a year and it shows no sign of ending. While Russia continues bombing the country, everyday civilians suffer and lose their lives in the attempt to defend their families and homes. Almost 30% of the Ukrainian population had been displaced following the start of the hostilities. According to UNHCR, more than 8 million refugees from Ukraine are recorded across Europe, nearly 6 million of whom registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe.
The war in Ukraine has additional indirect and less obvious impacts that are affecting countries not immediately connected with the conflict. Both Russia and Ukraine are the two biggest grain suppliers worldwide, and many countries were depending on their food trade. In 2019 alone, they produced about one-quarter of global wheat exports. The EU sanctions against Russia determined a sudden deterioration and rise in prices for the production of goods and services. As a result, it generated an unprecedented food crisis within Europe and exacerbated hunger among the most vulnerable countries in the world. The inability to continue the production of grain supplies raised concerns about global food security, exposing the incapacity of the international food supply network to replace the stock from Ukraine and Russia. Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine has registered a substantial drop in its exports and food prices are still above 2021 levels. As a result, the drop in Ukrainian production has led to dramatic food insecurity for millions of people worldwide.
Although the war in Ukraine did not provoke a hunger crisis, it exacerbated an already dramatic humanitarian situation. According to the WFP, every day more than 345 million people in the world are facing high levels of food insecurity. The war, and the related rising inflation, have led to 4 million children into poverty, while child poverty across Europe and Central Asia (ECA) has significantly grown by 19%. The consequences are wider and stretch far beyond, as those who are in the context of poverty are more vulnerable to the risk of child marriage, violence, exploitation and abuse.
To give an idea of the extension of the grain market, Ukrainian farmers sowed almost 17 million hectares of spring crops in 2021, in other words, bigger than the extension of Czechia and Austria together. While in 2022 sowing decreased by 83%, the area not planted corresponds to 2.8 million hectares, almost big as Belgium. Despite the solidarity of the EU to sustain Ukrainian exports, we expect a further decline in its agricultural production and exports.
Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was the first-ranked exporter in the world of sunflower seed oil (50%), third-ranked for barley (18%), fourth for maize (16%) and fifth for wheat (12%). In 2021 the Ukrainian cereal export market was worth nearly 12 billion dollars, and the main recipients were countries of Asia (58%), Africa (34%) and Europe (6%). Moreover, one of the consequences of the drop in Ukrainian production determined a sharp increase in food prices worldwide. Specifically, prices for food increased by 34% and for vegetable oil were 58% higher than in March 2021. The fact that Ukrainian food supplies were intended to the most vulnerable communities, contributed to a further escalation of food insecurity in the most disadvantaged regions in the world.
Africa and Asia are now the most vulnerable areas, since between 2016 and 2021 they imported nearly 90% of wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia. It has been estimated that over 1 billion people, the entire population of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries in the world, are facing food insecurity which will put them at high risk.
In 2022 to address food insecurity in support of the most vulnerable communities, the EU increased its humanitarian funding by 32% compared to the previous year, reaching 770 million euros. On the opposite, in 2021 UN budget decreased by 2.8% compared to 2020.
While funding allocated to humanitarian assistance is volatile and may vary from year to year, the humanitarian need continues to grow exponentially. Therefore, the international community and governments face increasing challenges and difficulties in addressing assistance and support. Moreover, the outbreak of further conflicts has placed additional pressure on the humanitarian budget and required a shift and de-prioritisation of funds allocations.
The Impact of the Earthquake in Syria and Turkey on the humanitarian context
On February 6 the massive earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey provoked almost 50.000 deaths and thousands of displaced people. In Syria, the seism has further exacerbated a consecutive 12 years of complex conflict and crisis. 12 million people face food insecurity and an additional 2.9 are at risk of starvation, which means that 70% of the population might not be able to provide food for their families. In total, nearly 15 million people were already in need of humanitarian assistance, with a further 8.8 million now affected by the last earthquake. The escalation of the need for assistance in Syria has reached immense sizes, the earthquake has deeply deteriorated humanitarian conditions with specific regard to food and house insecurity. The risk for Europe is, moreover, that its countries will be hit by a massive migration wave that cannot be easily handled without proper resources and cooperation. The earthquake in Syria has caused extensive damages with a total estimation in economic terms of US$5.2 billion. But until April 27, the Syrian Humanitarian Response Plan for 2023 has been funded only the 7.8%.
Final remarks
The war in Ukraine, the earthquake in Syria and Turkey – and now the escalation of the clashes that broke out in Sudan – have further pushed an economic, social, and humanitarian international network under strain. The humanitarian needs are higher than ever, the UN estimated that 17.6 million people, of which more than 3 million children, are in desperate need of humanitarian assistance. The scenario that emerges is so dramatic that if not properly and promptly addressed, these crises might have serious long-term effects in many countries. The need to address these crises must be a priority for the international community, as pointed out by the UN World Food Programme Executive Director David Beasley.
MOAS continues to work and collaborate in support of the most affected communities worldwide. We are implementing targeted-mission to alleviate human suffering and give hope to those in need. In Yemen and Somalia we provide life-saving nutritional supplies to combat child malnutrition, while in Ukraine we operate with an emergency medical mission on the frontline. Furthermore, MOAS is working in the framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) to respond to the issues posed by water and fire in refugee camps worldwide.
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